El Nino, a natural weather phenomenon, has begun in the Pacific Ocean, presumably adding to the planet's warming due to climate change. US scientists verified the onset of El Nino. According to experts, this will likely make 2024 the warmest year on record. They fear it will contribute to the world surpassing the 1.5C warming threshold.
It will also affect the global climate, possibly bringing drought to Australia, increasing precipitation in the southern United States, and diminishing India's monsoon. The event will likely continue until next spring, at which point its effects will diminish.
Over the past few months, scientists have grown increasingly confident that an El Nino event will occur in the Pacific Ocean. Adam Scaife, director of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office, stated, "It's intensifying now, and there have been indications in our forecasts for several months, but it appears that it will reach its peak intensity by the end of this year."
"Next year's global temperature is very likely to set a new record," It depends on the strength of El Nino, a strong El Nio at the end of this year increases the likelihood of a new global temperature record in 2024." This natural phenomenon is the most significant climate system fluctuation on Earth.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO, has three distinct phases: hot, cool, and neutral. The hot phase, known as El Nino, occurs every two to seven years and is characterized by the surfacing of warm waters off the coast of South America, their spread across the ocean, and the release of large quantities of heat into the atmosphere.
Typically, record warm years, such as 2016, the warmest year on record, occur the year after a powerful El Nino event. Global weather agencies use a variety of criteria to determine when this heated phase will begin. For scientists in the United States, the ocean must be 0.5C warmer than normal for a month, the atmosphere must respond to this heat, and there must be evidence that the event is persisting.
In May, these conditions were satisfied. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared in a statement that "El Nino conditions are present." "This signal is extremely faint. However, NOAA scientist Michelle L'Heureux believes that these conditions are beginning to emerge and that they will continue to intensify. This past week, our weekly value was actually 0.8C, which is even stronger.
There is a one-in-four probability that the peak temperature of this event will exceed 2 degrees Celsius, which is approaching "super El Nino" territory. The effects of the onset of El Nino will likely be delayed by a few months, but they will be felt globally.
Researchers anticipate drier conditions in Australia and sections of Asia, as well as a possible weakening of the monsoon in India. The upcoming winter will likely be drier in the southern United States. Typically, El Nino exacerbates drought conditions in Africa. If past events serve as a guide, this impending weather event will result in significant human and economic losses.
In 1997-1998, the strong El Nio caused over $5 trillion in damages and approximately 23,000 fatalities due to storms and flooding.
